GoldenHouse Precious Metals Price Outlook for October 2026
We expect gold to stabilise after September’s correction
Gold enters October following a significant decline in September. As of 30 September, the spot price is around USD 4,196 per troy ounce, approximately 5% below its level at the beginning of the month. The main factors are rising US Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and expectations that the US Federal Reserve may continue raising interest rates.
Nevertheless, gold’s long-term fundamentals remain strong. According to the World Gold Council, central banks purchased a net 289 tonnes of gold in the second quarter of 2026, 62% more than a year earlier. Diversification of foreign exchange reserves and geopolitical uncertainty remain key reasons.
GoldenHouse Metals Outlook – October 2026
| Metal | Expected range in October | GoldenHouse end-of-October estimate | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | USD 4,000–4,450/oz | USD 4,250/oz | → to slightly ↗ |
| Silver | USD 57–66/oz | USD 62/oz | → |
| Platinum | USD 1,620–1,850/oz | USD 1,750/oz | → to slightly ↗ |
| Palladium | USD 1,100–1,320/oz | USD 1,200/oz | → to slightly ↘ |
Gold: our base-case estimate is USD 4,250
For October, GoldenHouse primarily expects the gold price to stabilise after September’s correction.
In the short term, high interest rates are weighing on gold. The US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate in September, and as of 30 September, markets assign an approximately 47% probability to another increase as early as October. Higher interest rates generally weigh on gold because it does not generate interest.
On the other hand, continued central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainty and investors’ long-term efforts to diversify some of their assets beyond traditional currencies and bonds support the price.
GoldenHouse therefore expects gold to trade mainly between USD 4,000 and USD 4,450 per ounce in October, reaching around USD 4,250 at the end of the month.
What could change the forecast?
The key factors will be US inflation and the Federal Reserve’s next decisions.
Lower inflation, falling US Treasury yields or a deterioration in the geopolitical situation could push gold back well above USD 4,400.
Conversely, further interest rate increases, a stronger dollar and continued growth in bond yields could lead to a test of the USD 4,000 level.
Silver
We expect silver to trade at approximately USD 57–66 per ounce in October.
Silver is likely to remain highly sensitive to movements in gold. At the same time, it is an important industrial metal, so its price movements may be considerably sharper than those of gold.
GoldenHouse end-of-October estimate: USD 62/oz.
Platinum
In our view, platinum has more favourable fundamentals than palladium. Limited supply could support its price even in a weaker macroeconomic environment.
For October, we expect a range of USD 1,620–1,850/oz.
GoldenHouse end-of-October estimate: USD 1,750/oz.
Palladium
We remain more cautious about palladium. A long-term risk is the gradual decline in demand from the automotive industry as electric vehicles become more widespread.
We therefore expect a range of USD 1,100–1,320/oz in October.
GoldenHouse end-of-October estimate: USD 1,200/oz.
Key sources for our forecast
In preparing the GoldenHouse Metals Outlook, we primarily follow:
Reuters – current precious metals prices, interest rates, bond yields and financial market expectations.
World Gold Council – global gold demand, investment demand and, in particular, central bank purchases.
We also consider publicly available analyses and forecasts from major international banks and institutions, especially Goldman Sachs Research, J.P. Morgan Global Research, UBS and Heraeus Precious Metals.
How accurate will our forecasts be?
This is the first edition of the regular GoldenHouse Metals Outlook.
We will not revise the forecast retrospectively after publication. Once October has ended, we will compare our estimates with actual prices and publish:
- the actual price at the end of the month,
- the original GoldenHouse forecast,
- the percentage difference,
- whether the price remained within the expected range,
- and whether we correctly predicted the direction of the price movement.
Over time, this will create a publicly accessible track record of GoldenHouse forecasts.
The GoldenHouse Metals Outlook is an analytical forecast based on publicly available market data and forecasts from reputable institutions. It is neither investment advice nor a guarantee of future price movements.