Precious metals in October 2026: what does GoldenHouse expect after September’s correction?

Following September’s decline, our main expectation for gold is stabilisation. What do we anticipate for silver, platinum and palladium? In our first monthly GoldenHouse Metals Outlook, we share our expected price ranges, forecasts for the end of October and an explanation of what could change the outlook.

One month, four metals, different stories

Gold, silver, platinum and palladium are often discussed together. Yet each metal has different uses and may respond differently to the same events. For gold, we focus primarily on interest rates, the US dollar and investor demand. For the other metals, industrial demand also plays a significant role.

That is why we are launching GoldenHouse Metals Outlook, a regular monthly series. Each month, we will present our view of the precious metals market and, once the month is over, revisit how our forecasts compared with actual performance.

The October edition is based on our original forecast prepared for the start of the month. We are retaining those price forecasts so that we can assess them fairly later on.

Our October outlook in figures

Prices are quoted in US dollars per troy ounce. These are forecasts of market prices for the metals, rather than retail prices for specific bars and coins.

The range and the month-end forecast express two different things. The range represents the interval within which we expect prices to move during the month. The month-end forecast is our base scenario for the end of October. Neither is guaranteed: the market may respond to a new event by moving outside the expected range.

Gold: finding a balance after the correction

The main theme of our October outlook is gold’s stabilisation following September’s decline. GoldenHouse’s base scenario assumes a range of 4,000 to 4,450 USD per ounce, with a price of around 4,250 USD at the end of the month.

This forecast reflects a balance between two sets of influences. Higher interest rates and rising bond yields can reduce the appeal of gold, which does not itself pay interest. A stronger US dollar can also make the metal more expensive for investors using other currencies.

On the other side, we are monitoring central bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty and investors’ efforts to spread their wealth across different asset classes. In our base scenario, these supportive factors help prices stabilise after the correction.

What could change this scenario?

We will assess the outlook primarily against US inflation, Federal Reserve policy, movements in the dollar and bond yields.

Weaker inflation data or falling yields could support gold. Rising geopolitical uncertainty could have a similar effect. Our original upside scenario therefore allows for a more pronounced recovery above 4,400 USD per ounce.

Higher interest rates, a strengthening dollar and rising bond yields could work in the opposite direction. In that case, we see the possibility of prices testing the area around 4,000 USD.

Silver: between investment and industry

For silver, we expect an October range of 57 to 66 USD per ounce, with a month-end forecast of 62 USD.

Silver combines investment and industrial uses. When assessing its price, we therefore monitor both gold’s performance and investor sentiment, as well as conditions in industry. These influences may reinforce each other, but they can also pull in opposite directions.

Our October scenario is broadly neutral. That does not mean we expect a quiet month throughout. Even if the opening and closing prices are similar, silver can experience substantial daily movements.

Platinum: supply as a key part of the outlook

For platinum, we set an October range of 1,620 to 1,850 USD per ounce. We expect a price of approximately 1,750 USD at the end of the month.

In our original outlook, we assess platinum’s position more favourably than palladium’s. Our scenario assumes that more limited supply may support prices even in a less favourable macroeconomic environment.

Our base expectation is therefore stabilisation to modest growth. Alongside supply, industrial demand remains important to monitor.

Palladium: a more cautious outlook

For palladium, we expect a range of 1,100 to 1,320 USD per ounce, with a price of around 1,200 USD at the end of October.

Our more cautious stance reflects long-term questions surrounding demand from the automotive industry and changes in its technologies. These factors do not, on their own, determine daily prices, but they influence our overall view of the metal.

For October, we therefore anticipate sideways movement to a slight decline.

We will compare our forecasts with actual results

The purpose of this series is to build a clear record of our expectations and their outcomes. We will not revise published forecasts retrospectively to match where the market actually went.

After October ends, we will publish a comparison of our original forecasts with actual month-end prices, the percentage deviation and an assessment of the direction of price movements. We will also assess separately whether prices remained within the expected ranges during the month.

Each subsequent monthly edition will remain a separate article. Readers will therefore be able to revisit what we expected in advance and compare it with what happened afterwards.

What our outlook is based on

The original October forecast lists Reuters, the World Gold Council and publicly available analyses from Goldman Sachs Research, J.P. Morgan Global Research, UBS and Heraeus Precious Metals among the sources monitored. The table presents GoldenHouse’s own forecasts, rather than a joint forecast by these institutions.

GoldenHouse Metals Outlook is an analytical outlook. It does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future price performance.

The October price ranges and forecasts are based on our original precious metals price forecast for October 2026 (in Czech). This blog edition preserves them as part of the monthly GoldenHouse Metals Outlook series.